Rot-Weiß Essenvs
Fortuna Köln
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rot-Weiß Essen · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 Fortuna Köln
Original prediction
Rot-Weiß Essen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 62.5% | 46.3% | -16.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 20.9% | 27.4% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 5.43 | 16.6% | 26.3% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Rot-Weiß Essen
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Rot-Weiß Essen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00