Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VSK Århus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Roskilde 1-0 VSK Århus
Original prediction
VSK Århus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.6% | 31.4% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.1% | 26.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.3% | 42.6% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
VSK Århus
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
VSK Århus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RoskildeDWDDW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
VSK ÅrhusDWWWW
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
RoskildeVSK Århus
53.3Attack66.7
53.3Defence93.3
46.7Form86.7
54.5Power82.7
1.14xG1.65