Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Roskilde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Roskilde 5-1 FA 2000
Original prediction
Roskilde
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 62.7% | 61.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.6% | 21.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 5.73 | 15.7% | 17.4% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Roskilde
Probability
61.1%
Model confidence
61.1%
Roskilde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RoskildeDWWDW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FA 2000LDDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RoskildeFA 2000
47.6Attack38.1
61.9Defence33.3
52.4Form23.8
57.4Power35.1
2.02xG0.87