Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarhus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 05:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.69 | 13.7% | 35.3% | 21.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.80 | 19.0% | 24.9% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 1.36 | 67.3% | 39.8% | -27.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Aarhus
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Aarhus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RoskildeWDWWD
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AarhusWDDLW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RoskildeAarhus
100.0Attack100.0
88.9Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
93.5Power88.7
2.69xG1.81