Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rosenborg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rosenborg 5-3 Tromso
Original prediction
Rosenborg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.9% | 39.1% | -16.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.9% | 23.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.65 | 20.1% | 37.7% | 17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Rosenborg
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Rosenborg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RosenborgWLWWL
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TromsoLDLDL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
RosenborgTromso
54.4Attack59.6
54.4Defence61.4
47.4Form61.4
51.8Power59.7
1.32xG1.54