Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rops · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rops 3-1 SalPa
Original prediction
Rops
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.6% | 48.9% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.1% | 19.3% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 35.4% | 31.7% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–17%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–16%
Predicted outcome
Rops
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Rops has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RopsLDWLD
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SalPaWWWWL
GF 17 · GA 11 · avg 3.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
RopsSalPa
68.1Attack70.8
50.0Defence41.7
56.9Form58.3
58.0Power57.2
2.61xG1.98