Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sweden · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Romania 0-1 Sweden
Original prediction
Sweden
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.78 | 19.8% | 23.6% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.8% | 24.9% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 57.4% | 51.5% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Sweden
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Sweden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RomaniaLLLWD
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SwedenDWWDL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
RomaniaSweden
33.3Attack66.7
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form77.8
14.0Power72.8
1.00xG1.83