Romaniavs
Bosnia & Herzegovina
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Romania · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Original prediction
Romania
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 39.6% | 35.7% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.8% | 29.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 31.6% | 34.9% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Romania
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Romania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80