Roma Wvs
Fiorentina W
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A Cup Women · 9/5/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Roma W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Roma W 3-0 Fiorentina W
Original prediction
Roma W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 42.8% | 48.5% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.6% | 25.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 29.6% | 25.9% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Roma W
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Roma W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Roma WLWWLD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Fiorentina WWLWLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Roma WFiorentina W
86.7Attack55.6
66.7Defence55.6
80.0Form66.7
77.3Power61.0
1.97xG1.06