Rodina Moskvavs
Spartak Moscow
COMPLETEDRussia · Cup · 10/15/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Moscow · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rodina Moskva 2-4 Spartak Moscow
Original prediction
Spartak Moscow
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.10 | 15.3% | 26.3% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.81 | 19.4% | 23.8% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 65.2% | 49.9% | -15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Moscow
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
Spartak Moscow has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80