Rodina Moskvavs
FC Orenburg
COMPLETEDRussia · Premier League · 10/19/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Orenburg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Rodina Moskva 0-1 FC Orenburg, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Rodina Moskva 2-2 FC Orenburg
Original prediction
FC Orenburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 31.7% | 18.8% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.9% | 23.6% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 40.4% | 57.5% | 17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.1 pts
Projected Score
Rodina Moskva 0–1 FC Orenburg
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
FC Orenburg
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
FC Orenburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00