Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rodez · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rodez 3-4 Nancy
Original prediction
Rodez
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 39.8% | 38.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.9% | 27.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 32.3% | 33.6% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Rodez
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Rodez has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RodezLLDWL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NancyLLWWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
RodezNancy
61.1Attack22.2
33.3Defence77.8
38.9Form38.9
44.9Power48.2
1.18xG1.08