Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waalwijk · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Roda 2-0 Waalwijk
Original prediction
Waalwijk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 40.8% | 32.3% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.5% | 25.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.7% | 42.1% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Waalwijk
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Waalwijk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RodaDWDDW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
WaalwijkWWWDD
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
RodaWaalwijk
33.3Attack85.7
76.2Defence57.1
57.1Form61.9
58.8Power67.0
1.14xG1.52