Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Roda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Roda 1-0 Vitesse
Original prediction
Roda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 42.8% | 38.7% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.8% | 25.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 31.5% | 35.6% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Roda
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Roda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RodaDDWWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VitesseWWLWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
RodaVitesse
40.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence53.3
53.3Form66.7
56.5Power62.5
1.45xG1.44