Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Roda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Roda 2-2 NAC Breda
Original prediction
Roda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.99 | 31.0% | 38.7% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.2% | 26.4% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 42.8% | 34.9% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Roda
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Roda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RodaWWLLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NAC BredaWLWLW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RodaNAC Breda
33.3Attack55.6
77.8Defence44.4
66.7Form66.7
62.6Power58.8
1.60xG1.30