Cupa RomânieiCupa României
Wednesday, 29 July 202615:30Updated today
Râmnicu Sărat

Râmnicu Sărat

Home
L
vs
15:30
CSM Adjud

CSM Adjud

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
39% confidence
Râmnicu Sărat(37%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Râmnicu Sărat
37%
Draw
24%
CSM Adjud
39%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Râmnicu Sărat
34
CSM Adjud
34
Defence
Râmnicu Sărat
27
CSM Adjud
91
Momentum
Râmnicu Sărat
0
CSM Adjud
100
Danger (xG)
Râmnicu Sărat
0.90
CSM Adjud
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.51 xG for Râmnicu Sărat and 1.58 xG for CSM Adjud — strong and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-2 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.07), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.09 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-2 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.

xG for (Râmnicu Sărat)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (CSM Adjud)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Râmnicu Sărat)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (CSM Adjud)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Râmnicu SăratRâmnicu Sărat
L
CSM AdjudCSM Adjud
W

Probability breakdown

39% confidence
Râmnicu Sărat37%
Draw24%
CSM Adjud39%

CSM Adjud leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Râmnicu Sărat Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Râmnicu Sărat host CSM Adjud in Cupa României. Râmnicu Sărat have recorded DWLDWL in recent matches while CSM Adjud arrive with a run of WDLWWW. These sides have met 4 times recently, averaging 4.0 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🔒 Defensive Stability CSM Adjud have kept 4 clean sheet(s) in 10 recent matches — a defensive record that gives them a meaningful edge in this fixture. Defensive solidity is one of the strongest predictors of match outcomes at this level.
: 📈 Recent Form CSM Adjud arrive in better recent form — 4 wins from 10 matches (WDLWWW) against Râmnicu Sărat's 2. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Râmnicu Sărat have won 2 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While CSM Adjud carry the stronger underlying metrics, Râmnicu Sărat's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

CSM Adjud hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for CSM Adjud.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours CSM Adjud, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Râmnicu Sărat score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • The head-to-head record is competitive — the underdog has won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.07 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.

Recent form

Râmnicu Sărat

Râmnicu Sărat

L
vs Unirea Braniştea
15 May 2026
12
CSM Adjud

CSM Adjud

W
vs CSM FC Vaslui
16 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Râmnicu Sărat vs CSM Adjud?

GoalVio's model predicts Râmnicu Sărat to win with 39% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Râmnicu Sărat vs CSM Adjud?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Râmnicu Sărat vs CSM Adjud?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Râmnicu Sărat vs CSM Adjud?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more