Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina
Saturday, 16 May 2026Last updated 10:07
River Plate

River Plate

Home
W
00
Full time
Rosario Central

Rosario Central

Away
DW
Estadio Monumental
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
River Plate(44%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction correct— Result: River Plate
Win probability
River Plate
44%
Draw
27%
Rosario Central
29%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
River Plate
94
Rosario Central
34
Defence
River Plate
91
Rosario Central
82
Momentum
River Plate
100
Rosario Central
67
Danger (xG)
River Plate
2.82
Rosario Central
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (River Plate)
2.82
avg per match
xG for (Rosario Central)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (River Plate)
0.04
avg per match
xG against (Rosario Central)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
River PlateRiver Plate
WDW
Rosario CentralRosario Central
DW

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
River Plate44%
Draw27%
Rosario Central29%

River Plate leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Match insights

River Plate head into this in Liga Profesional Argentina fixture at Estadio Monumental in mixed form (W), while Rosario Central arrive in mixed form (DW). River Plate have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 50% for Rosario Central over 2 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — River Plate (91/100) and Rosario Central (82/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

River Plate have won 2 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Rosario Central have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.

River Plate have generated 2.82 xG per game recently while conceding 0.04 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 0.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects River Plate to win with 44% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: River Plate 4430%, Draw 2650%, Rosario Central 2930%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

River Plate 0Draws 10 Rosario Central
Avg goals: 0.0
16 May 2026
River Plate
D00
Rosario Central

Recent form

River Plate

River Plate

W
vs Blooming
28 May 2026
30
xG 2.8
D
vs Rosario Central
16 May 2026
00
W
vs Gimnasia L.P.
14 May 2026
20
Rosario Central

Rosario Central

D
@ River Plate
16 May 2026
00
W
vs Racing Club
13 May 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win River Plate vs Rosario Central?

GoalVio's model predicts River Plate to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for River Plate vs Rosario Central?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in River Plate vs Rosario Central?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in River Plate vs Rosario Central?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more