River Plate Res.vs
Sarmiento Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 10/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
River Plate Res. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: River Plate Res. 1-0 Sarmiento Res., with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
River Plate Res. 1-0 Sarmiento Res.
Original prediction
River Plate Res.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.3% | 48.6% | -17.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.0% | 28.6% | 7.7 pts |
| Away | 7.06 | 12.8% | 22.8% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.7 pts
Projected Score
River Plate Res. 1–0 Sarmiento Res.
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
River Plate Res.
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
River Plate Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00