Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Riga are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Tukums are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 45.5-point power-rating edge (83.5 v 38.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the Virsliga, while Riga holds the strongest overall chance at 89% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
88.6%
Model confidence
12.4%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 8 · avg 3.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60