Rigavs
Super Nova
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Riga 2-0 Super Nova, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Riga 2-1 Super Nova
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 83.3% | 84.1% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 8.09 | 11.3% | 11.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 16.93 | 5.4% | 4.6% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Projected Score
Riga 2–0 Super Nova
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
84.1%
Model confidence
84.1%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RigaDWWWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Super NovaLWLLW
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
RigaSuper Nova
91.7Attack32.3
68.8Defence53.1
79.2Form39.6
78.2Power44.0
2.74xG0.50