Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Riga are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Rīgas FS are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 2.3-point power-rating edge (83.5 v 81.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.4% in the Virsliga, while Riga holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
13.4%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60