Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Riga are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Rīgas FS are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 2.3-point power-rating edge (83.5 v 81.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.5% in the Virsliga, while Riga holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40