Rigavs
Kairat Almaty
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Riga 1-1 Kairat Almaty
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 48.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.6% | 27.9% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.99 | 23.5% | 26.3% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00