Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Riga are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Grobiņa are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 51.0-point power-rating edge (83.5 v 32.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.4% in the Virsliga, while Riga holds the strongest overall chance at 92% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
92.0%
Model confidence
17.4%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60