Rigavs
BFC Daugavpils
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 9/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Riga 1-1 BFC Daugavpils
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 72.0% | 73.4% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.46 | 16.6% | 16.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 7.95 | 11.4% | 9.8% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
73.4%
Model confidence
73.4%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RigaWLWDD
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BFC DaugavpilsDLDWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RigaBFC Daugavpils
100.0Attack39.3
66.7Defence61.9
80.2Form44.0
80.0Power49.9
2.21xG0.66