Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Riga 2-2 Auda
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.7% | 61.0% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.79 | 19.0% | 21.0% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 7.39 | 12.3% | 18.0% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
61.0%
Model confidence
61.0%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RigaDWLWD
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AudaWDDWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RigaAuda
97.6Attack53.6
66.7Defence67.9
78.6Form66.7
78.7Power63.3
1.78xG0.94