Riedvs
Red Bull Salzburg
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 9/11/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Red Bull Salzburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ried 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg
Original prediction
Red Bull Salzburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.32 | 17.6% | 18.3% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 21.7% | 21.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 60.7% | 60.3% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Red Bull Salzburg
Probability
60.3%
Model confidence
60.3%
Red Bull Salzburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40