Richmond Kickersvs
One Knoxville
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
One Knoxville · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Richmond Kickers 3-2 One Knoxville
Original prediction
One Knoxville
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.07 | 22.2% | 23.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.7% | 26.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 54.1% | 49.9% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
One Knoxville
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
One Knoxville has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00