Richmond Kickersvs
Forward Madison
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 8/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forward Madison · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-3 (12%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Richmond Kickers 1-2 Forward Madison
Original prediction
Forward Madison
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.38 | 26.7% | 12.2% | -14.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.5% | 16.8% | -8.7 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 47.8% | 71.0% | 23.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
23.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–312%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Forward Madison
Probability
71.0%
Model confidence
71.0%
Forward Madison has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00