Richards Bayvs
Mamelodi Sundowns
COMPLETEDSouth-Africa · Premier Soccer League · 10/13/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mamelodi Sundowns · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Richards Bay 1-4 Mamelodi Sundowns
Original prediction
Mamelodi Sundowns
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.77 | 10.4% | 13.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.54 | 20.2% | 19.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.32 | 69.4% | 66.6% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Mamelodi Sundowns
Probability
66.6%
Model confidence
66.6%
Mamelodi Sundowns has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60