Y Rhyl 1879vs
Newtown AFC
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newtown AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Y Rhyl 1879 2-2 Newtown AFC
Original prediction
Newtown AFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.35 | 27.0% | 22.0% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.0% | 22.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 49.0% | 55.1% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.76 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Newtown AFC
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Newtown AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40