Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bala Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rhyl 1-3 Bala Town
Original prediction
Bala Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 35.2% | 32.3% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.5% | 25.3% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 41.3% | 42.4% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Bala Town
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Bala Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RhylDWLDL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Bala TownWWWLL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
RhylBala Town
41.7Attack77.8
66.7Defence77.8
41.7Form100.0
51.6Power87.0
1.33xG1.73