Rhode Islandvs
Louisville City
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rhode Island · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rhode Island 1-1 Louisville City
Original prediction
Rhode Island
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 41.0% | 49.2% | 8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.6% | 23.6% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 31.3% | 27.2% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Rhode Island
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
49.2%
Rhode Island has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00