Rhode Islandvs
Indy Eleven
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/30/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rhode Island · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rhode Island 1-0 Indy Eleven
Original prediction
Rhode Island
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 51.2% | 44.0% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.3% | 28.0% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.75 | 24.5% | 28.0% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Rhode Island
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Rhode Island has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40