Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rågsved · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rågsved 4-3 Smedby
Original prediction
Rågsved
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.7% | 42.4% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.7% | 26.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.68 | 24.6% | 31.4% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Rågsved
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Rågsved has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RågsvedWDLWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SmedbyDLLLD
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RågsvedSmedby
62.5Attack56.9
48.6Defence54.2
54.2Form50.0
56.5Power53.8
1.90xG1.63