Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 4-0 (13%), 5-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rīgas FS 2-0 Tukums
Original prediction
Rīgas FS
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.07 | 85.6% | 89.6% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 9.63 | 9.5% | 7.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 18.72 | 4.9% | 3.2% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.4–013%
- 3.5–011%
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
89.6%
Model confidence
89.6%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Rīgas FSWWDWD
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TukumsLDLWL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Rīgas FSTukums
82.3Attack45.8
75.0Defence34.4
83.3Form25.0
79.3Power36.3
3.94xG0.61