Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Rīgas FS are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Tukums are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Rīgas FS hold a 43.3-point power-rating edge (81.2 v 38.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.6% in the Virsliga, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 89% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
88.7%
Model confidence
12.6%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 3 · avg 3.40/0.60
GF 16 · GA 8 · avg 3.20/1.60