Rīgas FSvs
Super Nova
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 10/15/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Rīgas FS 2-0 Super Nova, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Rīgas FS 4-0 Super Nova
Original prediction
Rīgas FS
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 83.1% | 68.2% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 7.87 | 11.6% | 18.5% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 17.33 | 5.3% | 13.3% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Projected Score
Rīgas FS 2–0 Super Nova
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
68.2%
Model confidence
68.2%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Rīgas FSWDWDL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Super NovaWLLWW
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Rīgas FSSuper Nova
80.6Attack33.3
74.2Defence55.9
82.8Form40.9
78.5Power45.7
2.54xG0.45