Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rīgas FS are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Riga are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 4.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Riga hold a 2.3-point power-rating edge (81.2 v 83.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.4% in the Virsliga, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 22 · GA 4 · avg 4.40/0.80