Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rīgas FS are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while PAOK are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and PAOK hold a 7.4-point power-rating edge (47.1 v 54.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40