Rīgas FSvs
FS Jelgava
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Rīgas FS 3-0 FS Jelgava, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Rīgas FS 4-2 FS Jelgava
Original prediction
Rīgas FS
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 81.7% | 69.8% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 7.26 | 12.5% | 17.3% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 15.67 | 5.8% | 12.9% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Projected Score
Rīgas FS 3–0 FS Jelgava
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
69.8%
Model confidence
69.8%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Rīgas FSDWDLW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FS JelgavaLDLWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Rīgas FSFS Jelgava
78.9Attack34.4
75.6Defence47.3
82.2Form34.4
78.1Power39.6
3.01xG0.46