Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rīgas FS are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Ajax are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Rīgas FS hold a 3.1-point power-rating edge (47.1 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60