Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sergipe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Retrô are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Sergipe are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Sergipe hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (46.1 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.4% in the Serie D, while Sergipe holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sergipe
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
14.4%
Sergipe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60