Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Retrô · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Retrô are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Lagarto are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 46.1 against 46.5. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Serie D, while Retrô holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Retrô
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
13.9%
Retrô has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60