Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Retrô · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Retrô are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Decisão are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Retrô hold an 8.7-point power-rating edge (46.1 v 37.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.0% in the Serie D, while Retrô holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Retrô
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
13.0%
Retrô has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00