Resistenciavs
Benjamín Aceval
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 10/26/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Resistencia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Resistencia 5-2 Benjamín Aceval
Original prediction
Resistencia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 October 2026 at 09:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 42.8% | 37.1% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.6% | 29.5% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 31.6% | 33.4% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Resistencia
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Resistencia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00