Rep. Of Irelandvs
Austria
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Austria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rep. Of Ireland 2-2 Austria
Original prediction
Austria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.54 | 26.7% | 31.9% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 30.0% | 28.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 43.4% | 39.3% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Austria
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Austria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60