Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Rentistas 0-0 Fenix, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Rentistas 2-1 Fenix
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.6% | 32.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.8% | 31.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.7% | 36.7% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Projected Score
Rentistas 0–0 Fenix
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.2%
Model confidence
36.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RentistasDDLDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
FenixDDLWL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RentistasFenix
36.4Attack49.3
65.2Defence63.8
45.5Form52.2
51.0Power56.4
0.83xG0.95