Renofa Yamaguchivs
Sagamihara
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/26/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Renofa Yamaguchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Renofa Yamaguchi 2-2 Sagamihara
Original prediction
Renofa Yamaguchi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.5% | 39.8% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.1% | 29.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.4% | 30.6% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Renofa Yamaguchi
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Renofa Yamaguchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80