Renofa Yamaguchivs
Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 8/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Renofa Yamaguchi 0-0 Osaka
Original prediction
Osaka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.3% | 33.8% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.5% | 27.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.2% | 39.1% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Osaka
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Renofa YamaguchiLWLWD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OsakaLDWDL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Renofa YamaguchiOsaka
22.2Attack77.8
55.6Defence44.4
33.3Form55.6
40.3Power60.9
1.26xG1.54